Analysts sometimes get it right and at other times get it wrong, but let's humour Robert W. Baird & Co. analyst Colin Sebastian anyway, who predicts that Titanfall will ship 6 million units by the end of 2014.
“Near term, we are adjusting estimates to assume 2.4 million sell-in of Titanfall in F4Q with CY2014 total shipments of 6 million units,” he said in an industry note (via VG247), following meetings with EA management.
“Our cautious view of EA in prior years was originally based on inconsistent financial performance, and a comparatively inefficient cost structure. In becoming more constructive on the stock earlier in 2013, we recognized management’s renewed focus on expense management together with a more realistic approach to guidance. Moreover, EA has now achieved a number of important financial, product and executive milestones, and we believe is generally on a better course.”
Sebastian said he expects EA’s FY15 guidance will still be “overshadowed” by declines in last-gen software, although feels EA's support for the latest consoles such as PS4 and Xbox One will cancel that out.
Do you think Titanfall will ship 2.4 million copies by the end of March? It certainly seems a reasonable guess. As for 6 million by the year's end? We can see that happening too in all honestly.